Three housing related reports will be released this week: the NAHB builder confidence survey on Monday, housing starts on Tuesday, and existing home sales on Thursday. Fed Chairman Bernanke will report to the Senate and House on Wednesday and Thursday, and on Friday, the European bank stress test results will be released.
Here is the daily schedule:
On Monday, the July NAHB homebuilder survey will be released at 10 AM. The consensus is for another low reading at about the same level as June (17).
On Tuesday, Housing Starts for June will be released at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for a decrease to 580K (SAAR) in June from 593K in May. Based on builder comments, I’ll take the under again this month.
Also on Tuesday, the BLS will release the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report for June at 10 AM.
On Wednesday, the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for June will be released (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). Also on Wednesday, the MBA will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This has fallen to the lowest level in over 13 years suggesting weak home sales will be reported in July and later this year.
On Wednesday, starting at 10 AM ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will report to the Senate Banking Committee: The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Possibly on Wedneday, the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (for May) will also be released.
On Thursday, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for an increase to 450K from 429K last week.
Also on Thursday, the National Association for Realtors (NAR) will release the June existing home sales report. The consensus is for a decline to 5.3 million sales in June (SAAR, seasonally adjusted annual rate), from 5.66 million in May. A key number in the release will be existing home inventory. Inventory has increased year-over-year for the last two months, and this suggests that the months-of-supply will be in double digits later this summer.
Also on Thursday, starting at 9:30 AM ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will report to the House Financial Services Committee: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy. The report will be the same as for the Senate, but the Q&A might be interesting.
Also on Thursday, the FHFA house price index, and the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators will be released.
On Friday, the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) will release the stress test results for 91 European Banks. And the FDIC will probably be busy too …